Cotton prices dropped in Brazil in October. From September 28 to October 31, the Center for Advanced Studies on Applied Economics (CEPEA)/ESALQ cotton Index, with payment in 8 days, dropped 7.67 per cent, closing at 2.9510 BRL per pound on October 31. The monthly average price, at 3.0750 BRL per pound, was 3.5 per cent lower than in September 2018.
During the month, trading pace was slow in the Brazilian spot market and most deals involved small amounts. Purchasers did not seem very interested in closing new trades, since they expect supply to increase and prices to drop in the coming weeks. Besides, heterogeneous quality among the batches supplied hampered sales in the spot too, CEPEA said in its latest fortnightly report on the cotton market.
Sellers, in turn, lowered asking prices even more, due to the lower quality of the cotton supplied, dollar drops against Real and Futures oscillations at ICE Futures (New York Stock Exchange), the report said.
According to data from the BBM (Brazilian Commodity Exchange) tabulated by CEPEA, 58.5 per cent of the 2017-18 Brazilian crop, estimated at 2.005 million tons, may have been traded until October 30. Of this total, 54.3 per cent was bought for use in the domestic market, 32.7 per cent for export to the international market and 13 per cent was flex contracts (exports with an option to the domestic market).
Regarding the 2018-19 crop, data indicate that at least 20 per cent of the output (forecast by Conab at 2.202 million tons, on average) has been traded – 54.9 per cent in the Brazilian market, 17 per cent for exports, and 28.2 per cent for flex contracts. (RKS)
譯文如下：
10月巴西棉花價格下跌超過7%
十月，巴西的棉花價格下跌。從9月28日至10月31日，應用經濟高級研究中心(CEPEA)/ESALQ棉花指數在8天內下跌7.67%，10月31日收于每磅2.9510 雷亞爾。月平均價格為每磅3.0750 雷亞爾，比2018年9月下降3.5%。
本月，巴西現貨市場的交易速度較慢，多數交易涉及小額交易。買家似乎對成交新交易不感興趣，因為他們預計未來幾周供應將增加，價格將下跌。此外，CEPEA在最近一份關于棉花市場的每兩周報告中表示，供貨批次的質量參差不齊也阻礙了現場銷售。
該報告稱，由于棉花供應質量下降，賣方進一步降低了要價，美元兌ICE期貨和現貨價格出現震蕩。
根據CEPEA制表的巴西商品交易所(BBM)的數據，在2017-2018年度巴西農作物中，估計有20.05萬噸的交易可能一直持續到10月30日。其中54.3%用于國內市場，32.7%用于國際市場出口，13%為彈性合同(可選擇向國內市場出售)。
關于2008 -2019年度的產量，數據顯示，至少20%的產量(Conab預測平均產量為220.2億噸)在巴西市場交易，占54.9%，其中出口占17%，彈性合同占28.2%。